When it comes to technology trends, I have a personal heuristic:
“The older the tech geek, the more wary one should be of their predictions.”
People’s subconscious incentive is to squeeze change into their remaining lifetime. That’s why most big tech predictions are always within 10, 20 year time frames; people dislike the idea of change taking longer in case they are not around to see it.
There’s a deep human bias to want to be the protagonist of important events. Knowing that we may die before cool things happen is the ultimate FOMO.
New technology can happen overnight, but the adoption of such technology by individuals and societies always takes longer. In many cases, it doesn’t happen until the generation that was used to doing things the old way dies and makes room for the innovative habits of younger folks.
Change does not happen when a new technology arrives, but when people’s behavior change because of it.
Let’s remember that there’s risk in both catching the wave early as there is catching it late.